The future of the Northstar Rail Line connecting the Twin Cities to Big Lake could be numbered, based upon a pair of developments this week.

The MN Department of Transportation and the Metropolitan Council announced early this week that they are studying a proposal to replace the trains with buses amid a precipitous decline in ridership.

According to a joint press release, the agencies said a recent study “makes it clear we can provide more cost-effective transit service in the corridor currently being served by Northstar Commuter Rail.”

Before 2020, the line carried approximately 2,500 riders each weekday in addition to providing service to special events such as professional sports games.

Since the COVID pandemic, ridership plummeted and has never recovered, with just hundreds utilizing the service.  

According to MN DOT records, it cost nearly $12 million to operate Northstar in 2023, while it collected just over $300,000 in fares.  A similar line operating on buses is expected to cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $2 million per year.

The joint announcement comes the same week that  House Transportation Finance and Policy Chair Jon Koznick (R-Lakeville) advanced legislation to discontinue the service after 18 years.

Chair Koznick noted that the line has cost taxpayers well over $320 million.

“Taxpayers have been forced to subsidize a rail line that continues to underperform year after year, and it’s time to stop wasting $11 million annually on a project that simply doesn’t work to reduce congestion or move people,” Koznick said in a statement released by the House of Representatives.  “Instead of continuing to pour money into a failing system, we need to focus on solutions that actually serve commuters efficiently and affordably.”

Koznick went on to cite the peculiarity of the timing of the joint announcement.

“It’s ironic that MnDOT and the Met Council suddenly scramble to take action on the same day we are advancing legislation to terminate Northstar operations. This announcement—made with almost zero notice—only confirms that Northstar’s financial losses and declining ridership can no longer be ignored,” read Koznick’s statement.

The Northstar line started operations in 2009 and a study released last year projected it could cost in excess of $500,000 million to extend the line from Big Lake to St. Cloud.